Perspectives

The persistently low rate of inflation is feeding a debate on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.  The latest inflation reading (specifically, the PCE Core rate) fell to an annual rate of only 1.6% despite overall strength in the economy.  White House officials and some economists argue that the Fed should support continued economic expansion by lowering interest rates; indeed, in the lead up to the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, many investors anticipated a rate cut.  However, in announc… View More

Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative," of growth, obsessing that near zero growth in Q1 would mean three straight quarters of deceleration in real GDP, which if extrapolated meant a recession could be lurking. Oops! The US economy accelerated in the first quarter, with real GDP up at a 3.2% annual rate … View More

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index largely unchanged. Behind the headline numbers, however, there was some movement within and between sectors. Health care stocks sold off sharply last week, with managed care stocks hit particularly hard by regulatory concerns. The CEO of United Healthcare came out strongly against the “Medicare for all” plans being discussed by Democratic presidential candidates, which called the issue into focus. In contrast, both technology and f… View More

On Friday, the much anticipated earnings season began with JP Morgan reporting earnings 5% above expectations; positive commentary by management on the strong demand for credit by consumers and businesses helped propel the Financials sector higher.  The Nasdaq led all indices for the week (0.57%) followed by the S&P 500® (0.51%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.14%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.05%.  The S&P 500® reached an important milestone on Friday when the Index cro… View More

China’s release of strong economic data last Sunday set the stage for across-the-board market gains in an otherwise quiet week leading into next week’s start of earnings season.  The Russell 2000® Index (2.78%) led the major indices followed by the Nasdaq (2.71%), S&P 500® Index (2.06%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.91%).  Last Monday’s momentum extended through the week with upbeat comments from U.S. and Chinese officials on the progress of trade negotiations; a meeting… View More

The S&P 500's performance for the first quarter is its best quarterly gain since Q3 of 2009 and its finest start to the year since 1998. The quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back after the fourth quarter's heavy 14% slump, but analysts still see a positive period ahead. While there could be some bumps in Q2 as the market struggles with earnings growth and a slower economy, positive U.S. China trade relations and investing sentiment could propel stocks higher. The last da… View More

The tug-of-war between the bulls and bears continued with mixed economic data and the absence of significant market catalysts.   On Friday, all of the major indices sold off on global growth concerns and ongoing trade tensions.  For the week, the Russell 2000® Index fell 2.67%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.34%), the S&P 500® Index (-0.77%), and the Nasdaq (-0.60%).  The Federal Reserve provided news headlines on Wednesday: the Fed lowered its 2019 U.S. economic grow… View More

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Committee announced (as we have been expecting) that they would not raise rates again in 2019.  Powell indicated that the Fed's pausing is because of a more significant slowdown in growth than anticipated.  Much of this "slow down" is being measured through "Industrial Production."  We think the magnitude of the slow down may be a little overstated.  Below is a chart of U.S Industrial production over the last five years.  As you can see, the current drop i… View More

For the first time since October, the S&P closed above the 2815 level to end last week.  Technology has driven this last leg higher with the equally-weighted Nasdaq 100 right on the cusp of fresh all-time highs and the Semiconductors continuing to exhibit leadership. More broadly though, the market still appears to be in the midst of a consolidation phase with the Russell 2000 still below its February highs and the Transportation stocks again lagging.  These aren’t major blemishes, but … View More

While last week marked just the second down week of the year for the S&P, many individual names have been consolidating since mid-February.  The equity markets declined, with the worst 1-week performance this year, on mixed economic data.  For last week the Russell 2000® Index, the weakest performer, fell 4.26%, followed by Nasdaq (-2.46%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.21%), and the S&P 500® Index (-2.16%.)  Low trading volumes suggest that many investors are sitting on the… View More