Perspectives

North Korea. Charlottesville. Harvey. Irma. Maria. Despite all of the Trials and Tribulation of the last quarter - alternatively scary and sad, the three months just passed was yet another example of just how comfortable investors have become with being uncomfortable. The S&P was up +4% in the quarter, notching its 8th quarterly advance. The index’s average daily change during the period was a mere 0.3%, its lowest since 1968. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but it appears that both bond yie… View More

Markets were mixed last week; small cap stocks gained while large cap stocks were essentially unchanged. Sectors which respond to economic growth, such as Energy, Industrials, and Financials, outperformed; conservative areas of the market, including many consumer stocks and Utilities, lagged. The performance variance reflects a “risk on” sentiment as investors view positively the prospects for tax reform and improving global economic conditions. Congressional leaders have promised to release… View More

Markets rose last week as Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared and tax reform efforts took center stage. Prices for both U.S. Treasuries and gold fell following steady increases since early July; an apparent easing of geopolitical tensions with North Korea (notwithstanding Friday’s early morning launch of a missile over Japan) relaxed demand for these “safe haven” assets. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the North American benchmark, briefly surpassed $50 per barrel for… View More

We saw this commentary from one of the research analysts we follow. Brian Wesbury is the Chief economist at First Trust and we thought you might find his commentary interesting. This dovetails with the update we sent out last weekend about not believing everything you see or hear in the media. What Brian is discussing is the need to be honest about how and why the Federal Reserve grew its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve will finally look to start reducing its balance sheet and as it does, the… View More

Stocks pulled back last week during the holiday-shortened week as investors paused to assess the potential impact of multiple hurricanes, legislative developments, and ongoing tensions with North Korea. On Sunday, Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida barely ten days after Hurricane Harvey caused historic flooding in Texas; and, this week, Hurricane Jose is expected to follow Irma’s path through the Caribbean. The natural disasters will sap economic activity in the third quarter; over time, … View More

We recently ran across on article on wealthmanagement.com that we thought would be timely. They, as have we, observed and increase in concern over the stock market's value (we've also encountered this concern in relation to the bond market). "Lately, we have seen an uptick in investors who express concern that stock valuations are overheated and could soon spill into bubble territory. This is predictable, thanks to markets surpassing one benchmark after another in recent months—a surge that, … View More

August was a choppy, but essentially flat month for the markets. The price return of the S&P 500 was -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was -0.07%, and the Nasdaq’s price return was 1.59%. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was up about 0.67%. As for volatility in the markets, the VIX hit its year-to-date high on August 11th, climbing nearly 70% higher than where it started the month. Much of the increase in the VIX can be attributed to the tensions with North Korea, and certainly som… View More

Our hearts go out to the families affected by the devastation of Hurricane Harvey. The American spirit is alive and well as was demonstrated to us in last week’s search and rescue of the flooded areas. We wish all of our neighbors in Texas and Louisiana a speedy recovery. Stocks rose last week on generally upbeat economic data and elevated expectations for tax reform, even as Hurricane Harvey inflicted major damage throughout Texas and Louisiana (more on this below). The September employment … View More

Last week, a broad market rally led by small cap stocks followed the previous week’s selloff.  The Russell 2000® Index rose 1.45% while the other major indices also gained (the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%; S&P 500® Index rose 0.72% and the NASDAQ gained 0.79%).  As expected, trading volumes remained low.  The annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole garnered attention although the meeting did not reveal any notable changes in Fed monetary policy. Chair Yellen s… View More

Markets declined modestly in relatively light trading last week as political events continued to dominate headlines. Conservative areas of the market, including large cap stocks and Utility companies, outperformed while riskier areas of the market like small caps lagged. So far in the third quarter, the Russell 2000® Index of small companies (-3.9%) has significantly underperformed the large-cap dominated S&P 500® Index (+0.6%). Energy stocks also underperformed despite last week’s decli… View More